| 摘 要: 目的 研究煤尘职业暴露所致煤工尘肺的定量风险评估方法，预测职业暴露所致尘肺病的风险概率。方法 选取某热电站输煤车间作为研究对象，采用Logistic回归模型的非线性回归分析，通过接触呼吸性煤尘浓度及接尘工龄预测煤工尘肺发病概率；采用计算机R语言进行接尘工龄、接尘浓度与发病概率之间关系的风险表征实用性研究。结果 输煤车间作业场所操作工职业暴露于目前呼吸性煤尘浓度5年和10年发生煤工尘肺的风险在10-5~10-6，暴露20年和30年发生煤工尘肺的风险在10-3~10-2o上述结果提示，按职业生涯30年工龄计，发生煤工尘肺的风险将高于可接受风险水平，需要采取防护措施降低患病风险。结论 本研究建立的煤尘职业暴露定量风险评估方法，以劳动者接尘工龄、呼吸性煤尘暴露浓度与煤工尘肺的风险概率作为风险目标，实用性强，可用于职业病风险管理，为尘肺病的预防控制提供有力工具。 |
| 关键词: 煤尘 高危粉尘 尘肺病 风险评估 Logistic回归模型 |
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中图分类号: R135.2
文献标识码: A
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| 基金项目: 中央引导地方科技发展专项（19ZYPTYS00010） |
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| Quantitative risk assessment method of occupational exposure to coal dusts and its application |
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GUO Qing-hua，HUANG De-yin，LI Min-yan，ZHANG Qian
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Institute of Occupational Health，Tianjin，Bohai Chemical Industry Group Co.Ltd，Tianjin，300051，China
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| Abstract: Objective To study the quantitative risk assessment method of coal-worker’s pneumoconiosis caused by coal dust exposure，and predict the risk propability of pneumoconiosis caused by occupational exposure，thereby provide a technical basis for the implementation of risk management. Methods A coal handling workshop of a themal power station was chosen as research object. The Logistic regression model was used for the nonlinear regression analysis，the incidence of coal-worker's pneu moconiosis was predicted by the concentrations of respirable coal dust and the length of dust exposure. Furthermore，the practica bility of risk characterization on the relationship between incidence probability of coal-worker's pneumoconiosis and dust exposure length of service or dust exposure concentration was studied as well using R programming language. Results The study showed that the risk of coal worker's pneumoconiosis exposed to the the current respirable coal dusts for 5 or 10 years was between 10-5 and 10-6，and it would be between 10-3 and 10-2 if exposed for 20 to 30 years. The above results suggested that if assume the working length of coal wokers was 30 years，the risk of coal worker's pneumoconiosis would exceed the acceptable risk level，therefore，the protective measures should be taken for reducing the risk of the disease. Conclusion The study suggested that the risk assessment method established by the study，that based on the dust-exposure length and the respiratory coal dust exposure concentration，showed stronger practicability，which can be used in occupational disease risk management and provided a power ful tool for the prevention and control of pneumoconiosis. |
| Keywords: coal dust high-risk dust pneumoconiosis risk assessment Logistic regression model |
